Josko Gvardiol: Why Manchester City were willing to break the bank for the Croatian

The transfer saga has finally come to an end. On Saturday morning Manchester City confirmed the signing of RB Leipzig defender Josko Gvardiol. Joining the club on a five-year deal, the Croatian international now makes the move to the Premier League club for a reported fee of €90 million, with add-ons that coudl take the deal to over €100m. The initial fee alone now makes the Croatian center-back the most expensive defender in history. Gvardiol would, in fact, become the first defender to crack the €100m mark should he hit his bonuses and become just the 16th player in history to command a fee in the nine-digit range. Leipzig knew they were able to hold out on for a fee in that region as Gvardiol had an exit clause that became active next summer worth €110m. 

Josko Gvardiol: Goalimpact shows potential of future Man City star

The numbers involved are indeed eyewatering, and they beg the question: why was Man City manager Pep Guardiola willing to break the bank for the Croatian? One indicator for Guardiola’s obsession with the Croatian is his Goalimpact. Goalimpact measures the extent to which a player contributes to the goal difference of a team. If a player is assigned a high index value, then the team has a good goal difference when this player is on the pitch compared to matches where this player is not active.

One way of measuring potential impact is by comparing him to current Man City players. Gvardiol’s Goalimpact has been steadily rising and, through the 2022/23 season, peaked at 154.4. In comparison, Rúben Dias, who is five years older, has an Goalimpact of 179.8, which is considered absolute world-class. Dias’ peak Goalimpact at Gvardiol’s age was 139.4. The comparison highlights the high level Gvardiol showed this season for Leipzig and also at the World Cup, where he helped lead Croatia to a third-place finish.

Furthermore, Opta Stats also highlights his importance for DFB Pokal winners RB Leipzig this season. Among defensive categories, the Croatian was second to Willi Orban among all Leipzig center-backs with 96 total duels won, 43 aerial duels won, 2138 total passes and 2423 touches. In other words, Gvardiol was a key player for Leipzig. But there is also a word of caution. There is no doubt that Gvardiol has the ability to become one of the best defenders in the world, but at 21, the center-back still needs time to develop and get used to Guardiola’s system.